This is Written, by the Cedar Lounge, Revolution? Some interesting, Points, here?

Posted by

That latest RedC/SBP poll

WorldbyStorm Nov 1 Well, what can one say that hasn’t been said before? Just as a point of interest, fascinating to see that the wiki page on polling in advance of the next ROI General Election hadn’t been updated as I wrote this on Monday evening. So it didn’t include the IT/Ipsos poll or the latest RedC/SBP one. That latter poll had nothing of any great consequence. Fine Gael has made a comeback from its worst ever result in a Red C poll, but Sinn Féin has retained its position as the most popular party in Irish politics, according to the latest Business Post/Red C poll.It will be a relief to Tánaiste Leo Varadkar that his Fine Gael party is up by three points to 21 per cent after it registered 18 per cent in last month’s poll.However, Sinn Féin will be satisfied that it has suffered no damage from the sustained media coverage of the contents of Shane Ross’s new book about Mary Lou McDonald, the party leader, and the conviction of Jonathan Dowdall, a former Sinn Féin councillor, for helping a criminal gang to murder a rival gang member in the Regency Hotel in Dublin.The biggest concern for most Sinn Féin supporters is clearly the cost of living crisis, with 74 per cent saying they have little or no disposable income compared to 61 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters and 54 per cent of Fine Gael supporters.Sinn Féin’s support is unchanged at 35 per cent, whereas Fianna Fáil has slipped by one point to 16 per cent despite the introduction of what its own TDs thought was a “Fianna Fáil budget” last month, which contained €11 billion of permanent and temporary measures to address the cost of living crisis.Note that all those figures largely agree with other polls. And at the lower end of the political market… Support for independent TDs is down by one point to 11 per cent. There is no budget bounce for the Green Party either, which is down by one point to 4 per cent. However, there is relative satisfaction within the party with the contents of last month’s budget and the signs that some of its climate action policies are starting to have a real impact. The smaller opposition parties like the Social Democrats, Labour and People Before Profit-Solidarity are continuing to produce a prodigal amount of legislation and private members’ motions. But they are being slowly squeezed by Sinn Féin in anaconda-like fashion, giving them no room to expand politically.Labour and the Social Democrats are unchanged at 4 per cent each, as is People Before Profit-Solidarity at 2 per cent. Peadar Toibín’s Aontu party is down by one point to 1 per cent. Again much of a muchness with the other polls. So what gives? Isn’t it remarkably static all things considered. A ‘giveaway’ budget has pushed the needle only marginally with respect to any party, oddly that being FG. But I’m sure it’ll be all smiles there given they take over the position of Taoiseach. Fianna Fáil might be concerned that in the only poll to be more or less continually taken across the months and years they remain mired in the teens. The smaller parties – well, they are as they are and Sinn Féin, is that a ceiling we see before us? 35% is nothing to sneeze at, and most other polls recently have seen them up at 36 or even 37% but no poll has seen them higher. As we sweep into 2023 how does that function? Look at the graph and its still points upwards, but it is flattening. There’s no great enthusiasm for the other parties, any of them. The left and further left appear to have lost what momentum they had in the last decade – and they must feel very exposed in the context even of a 35% rating for SF. The argument for SD and LP to coalesce will likely continue, but to no avail. The GP may wonder how matters will go for it at the next election. Without question they’re going to lose seats. The issue is how many? And yet that static picture continues. And all this before we get to the issue of government formation!
L

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s