Protesters in Moscow against Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo Credit: Акутагава, Wikipedia Commons
Russia Rapidly Approaching Point At Which A Revolution Becomes Likely – OpEd
By Paul Goble
Revolutions occur, Abbas Gallyamov says, when “the actions the authorities take to prevent” such a development frighten people more than the prospect of a revolution does, a situation that Russia is approaching because of the counterproductive actions of the powers that be.
The often hysterical words of pro-Kremlin politicians and commentators, the former Putin speechwriter says, are having an effect very different from what the powers that be would like. They are “creating in people the feeling that a terrible end,” such as a revolution, “may be better than horror without end” (publizist.ru/blogs/112974/44874/-).
If it is to be successful, Gallyamov continues, efforts to counter a revolution must look “more respectable” and desirable than a revolution itself. But now Russian leaders are frightening people more than the prospect of a revolution does, not because of their stupidity but because of their conservatism.
When a society needs change and especially when these changes are long overdue but when at the same time the regime refuses to implement them, then, “at some point,” the leaders take actions that make the situation worse, actions that are “irreversibly stupid and brutal,” the commentator says.
And then a revolution becomes possible even likely. That is where the current rulers of Russia are driving the country.
Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at firstname.lastname@example.org .