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Beware: US…”Omicron is not that mild”. “…here’s a sobering thought: 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans may die of COVID-19 before the current surge ebbs in mid-March. Vaccination fatigue, lack of motivation/fear has led to complacency and US falls far behind many other countries where vaccination is in excess of 90%

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Omicron is not that mild: 50,000 to 300,000 more US deaths projected by March: COVID-19 updates

Jorge L. Ortiz ,  Ryan W. Miller ,  Celina Tebor   | USA TODAYShow Caption

For anyone getting complacent about the coronavirus because the now-dominant omicron variant typically causes less-severe disease than previous strains, here’s a sobering thought: 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans may die of COVID-19 before the current surge ebbs in mid-March.

Those are the projections of modelers, according to an Associated Press story, and they provide a grim reminder that omicron’s remarkable infectiousness more than makes up for its seemingly softer punch.

The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been trending upward since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on Monday – still well below the peak of 3,300 in January 2021.

The biggest concern in the coming weeks is reflected by simple math: Even if new infections have peaked in some parts of the U.S., they’re averaging around 800,000 a day nationwide, more than three times as many as in that brutal wave a year ago. That will inevitably lead to hospitals stretched beyond their limits and thousands of deaths. There are currently about 150,000 patients in hospitals with COVID.

If the higher end of projections becomes reality, total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 could soar over 1 million by early spring.

“A lot of people are still going to die because of how transmissible omicron has been,” University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi said.

Katriona Shea of Pennsylvania State University, who co-leads a team that pulls together several pandemic models and shares the combined projections with the White House, expects the coming wave of deaths to crest in late January or early February, possibly surpassing last year’s delta peak.

“This is omicron driven,” Shea said, underscoring once again the danger posed by the latest variant.

►Authorities in Hong Kong plan to kill some 2,000 small animals after several tested positive for the coronavirus at a pet store where an employee also tested positive. Hong Kong will also stop the sale of hamsters and the import of small mammals. 

►Canada approved use of the antiviral pill Paxlovid, created by Pfizer, to treat people with COVID-19. The U.S. approved its use in December.

►Celebrity Cruises and Royal Caribbean International, both subsidiaries of Royal Caribbean Group, have canceled cruises as COVID-19 continues to spread.

📈 Today’s numbers: The U.S. has recorded more than 67 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 853,000deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Global totals: More than 332 million cases and over 5.55 million deaths. More than 209 million Americans – 63% – are fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

📘 What we’re reading: Many parents are “just trying to stay afloat” as omicron is forcing day care centers to close in droves across the country. Read the full story.

— Maureen Groppe

Four inmates in Arkansas filed suit against their jail and its doctor for allegedly prescribing them “high doses” of ivermectin without their knowledge to treat COVID-19 even though health officials have warned that the anti-parasitic drug shouldn’t be used for that purpose.

‘Open question’ whether omicron is final wave, Fauci says 

It’s too soon to know whether the omicron variant will be the final phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Monday.

“It is an open question as to whether or not omicron is going to be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for,” Fauci said, putting air quotes around the phrase “live virus vaccination.”

There are two ways for a pandemic to end: the infectious disease is eliminated, like measles, or it becomes endemic, which means it still exists without major disruption to society, much like the flu.

“If you look at the history of infectious diseases, we’d only eradicated one infectious disease in man and that’s smallpox,” Fauci said at the World Economic Forum. “That’s not going to happen with this virus.”

That means COVID-19 must evolve into a less dangerous disease for the pandemic to officially end. Although the highly contagious omicron variant is spreading quickly — infecting about 782,000 Americans per day, according to the CDC — some point to its low mortality rate as a sign that the virus may be becoming less severe.

It’s possible that omicron could signal that the pandemic is ending, “but that would only be the case if we don’t get another variant that eludes the immune response,” Fauci said. 

Australia sees record deaths with hospitals stressed

A record-high 74 people died due to COVID-19 in Australia on Tuesday, the largest single-day tally in the country since the start of the pandemic, as hospitals are facing a surge of patients and staffing shortages.

“We’ve reached a point in our healthcare system where it’s juggling extreme workforce shortages … alongside a vast number of patients with COVID-19 who require hospitalization, alongside that an extraordinary workforce that are absolutely exhausted,” said James Merlino, the acting health minister in Victoria, where the government last week declared an emergency for some of its hospitals.

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said there were signs that New South Wales’ infection rate was peaking and Victoria was near a plateau. The New South Wales government has said it has ruled out a return to lockdown.

“Obesity was an epidemic before the pandemic, and little was known on body weight changes in the past year for adult Americans,” Khubchandani said. “We wanted to estimate weight changes in the U.S. population and its determinants after the first year of the pandemic.”

— Carlos Andres López, Las Cruces Sun News

Contributing: The Associated Press Share your feedback to help improve our site!

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