Posted by What We’re Ignoring: Russia’s first elite defection
Anatoly Chubais was once one of the most powerful men in Russia. In the 1990s, he was a principal architect of the country’s post-Soviet transition to capitalism, with all the opportunity, chaos, wealth, and resentment it entailed.
On Wednesday, Chubais, who was most recently serving as Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for “sustainability,” fled the country because of his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Observers have rightly pointed out that Chubais is the highest-ranking official to defect over the war so far. But it’s not quite as big a deal as it seems. Chubais is part of an economy-minded, technocratic wing of the Russian elite that has almost zero influence over Putin’s war and peace decisions. So his departure will hardly alter the Kremlin’s calculus about Ukraine — that would only happen if people with epaulets, judo uniforms, or telltale brooches start heading for the border. That said, Chubais’ fate will be watched closely by one group of people: others in Russia who may be considering defection and who want to see how he’s treated abroad. Will he be welcomed as a defector, or ostracized for having served Putin for so long?
Who Watches the Watchers? 