27th May, 2023: NATO “runs the show” for the US. War in Ukraine and two alternative positions by General Ben Hodges and John Mearsheimer (see below). Who do you think will win the war of invasion into Ukraine?; the oblasts already taken mean Russia have 23% of the territory but if there are further advancements, Russians will move into possession of 40+%. Nuclear threats are supposed to be about deterrence. Icarus comes to mind. The volatility threatens civilisation and we need to be informed, aware and able to influence those who make critical decisions. Tweets, videos and quotations. Finally: if you have time introduce yourself to Stephen Kotkin, one remarkable man who writes for decades about Russian leaders.

Fred Bassett's avatarPosted by

John Simpson

@JohnSimpsonNews

27th May 2023

Two contrasting views of Putin’s war: Ex-Pres Dmitri Medvedev says it could last for decades. Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin says there could be a 1917-style revolution in Russia if the Kremlin’s military leadership doesn’t improve. Prigozhin may prove closer to the truth.

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115,023 views May 22, 2023

Gen. Ben Hodges explains why he believes Ukraine will defeat Russia in the coming months and seriously threaten their position in Crimea. Gen. Hodges had a distinguished career in the US Army, as former Command of US Forces Europe, leading units in Afghanistan and Iraq, dealing with NATO issues. For a Frankly Fukuyama blog post on why Ukraine must join NATO, go to:

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Prediction:  Opposite to above.   “The Russians are going to win this war”.  “War of Attrition

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Newsweek

@Newsweek

27th May 2023

Mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his troops have started to withdraw from positions around the Donetsk city.

newsweek.com

Russia will still deploy Wagner troops despite “ongoing feud”—U.K.

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James Melville

@JamesMelville

The words of a soothsayer. Professor John Mearsheimer in 2015: “The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.”

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Bill Browder

@Billbrowder

27th May 2023

This is true state criminality. Russia issues veiled threat to the WSJ that if they continue to write articles critical of Russia, they will mistreat Evan Gershkovich who they have taken hostage.

newsweek.com Russia tries to blackmail WSJ with veiled threat about Evan Gershkovich A Moscow court extended Evan Gershkovich’s arrest for three more months in a pre-trial hearing on Tuesday, a decision that he appealed

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Bill Browder

@Billbrowder

27th May 2023

Just had a very good discussion on the hostage taking of Vladimir Kara Murza, seizing the frozen $350 billion of Russian state assets and other topics with

@TVPWorld_com

If you have a few minutes, it’s worth a watch. Click this link: https://youtu.be/dEIrsiw1ews

Quote Tweet

TVP World

@TVPWorld_com

27th May 2023

.@Billbrowder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, Head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, unveils insights into Putin’s frozen ‘War Chest’.

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Garry Kasparov Retweeted

My Stealthy Freedom

@mystealthyorg

Masih Alinjead’s response to President Zelenskyy: the people of Iran are not on the side of evil. We are standing against Putin & Khamenei. Join us in our call to EU to put IRGC on the terrorist list

@ZelenskyyUa

@Kasparov63

@KyivPost

@leopoldolopez

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Dmitri

@wartranslated

27th May 2023

Girkin accuses Prigozhin of preparing for a coup in Russia. He says the insults towards the Russian army by Putin’s cook are unacceptable, and signal a rift in the elites which Prigozhin will take advantage of with his private army that is being withdrawn from Bakhmut. Girkin…

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Ros Atkins

@BBCRosAtkins

From prison to hot dog seller to restauranteur to leader of the Wagner mercenary group which operates in Ukraine and far beyond. This is the story of Yevgeny Prigozhin and how he fits into Putin’s Russia. Produced by Mary Fuller, Floyd Cush, Michael Cox.

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Newsweek

@Newsweek

27th May 2023

Mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his troops have started to withdraw from positions around the Donetsk city.

newsweek.com Russia will still deploy Wagner troops despite “ongoing feud”—U.K. Mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his troops have started to withdraw from positions around the Donetsk city.

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The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

27th May 2023

Danilov: Wagner regrouping in 3 locations after partial withdrawal from Bakhmut. National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said in an interview released on May 27 that Russia’s Wagner mercenaries are “regrouping to another three locations” after what he…

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DW News

@dwnews

Russia’s Wagner mercenaries released footage of a reported prisoner exchange with Ukraine. Kyiv said 106 soldiers captured in Bakhmut were released.

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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

@Tsihanouskaya

Today, the #Belarus regime has signed an agreement with Russia on the deployment of nuclear weapons. It would not only endanger the lives of Belarusians but also create a new threat against Ukraine & all of Europe. Even when they are talking about tactical nuclear weapons, most… Show more

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Kenneth Roth

@KenRoth

26th May 2023

Putin’s lapdog, Medvedev, cites a nonexistent Western plan to give Ukraine nuclear weapons to justify saber rattling with Russia’s nuclear weapons — a needlessly provocative and dangerous threat.

Russia's Deputy head of
                      the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev speaks during
                      a news conference in Vientiane, Laos, May 23,
                      2023. Sputnik/Yekaterina Shtukina/Pool via
                      REUTERS

reuters.com Russia’s Medvedev warns West is underestimating risks of nuclear escalation over Ukraine A senior ally of President Vladimir Putin warned on Friday that the West was seriously underestimating the risk of a nuclear war over
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ANADOLU AGENCY

@anadoluagency

26th May 2023

• Serbia places army on full combat alert, calls on NATO to end violence against local Serbs in Kosovo • Russia has started moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, says President Lukashenko • 1 killed, 16 wounded in Russia strike on Ukraine’s city of Dnipro    https://twitter.com/i/status/1662113135107473411

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Spriter

@Spriter99880

27th May 2023

Ukraine should not try to return Crimea and Sevastopol, as this could lead to negative consequences for the whole world. This was announced on May 26 by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. He pointed out that the peninsula had never been Ukrainian in history. “I think…

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Dmytro Kuleba

@DmytroKuleba

I was honoured to be received by Rwandaʼs President

@PaulKagame

Grateful to Rwanda for its solidarity with Ukraine. I reiterated Ukraine’s strong interest in developing relations with Rwanda based on mutual respect and benefits. I am impressed with Rwanda’s economic progress.

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The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent

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The Wagner Group — a Russian PMC owned by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin — has been at the forefront of Russia’s efforts to capture the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. What do we know about Wagner? And how many of its mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine?

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Visegrád 24

@visegrad24

27th May 2023

Lithuanians celebrating Georgia’s Independence Day in Vilnius yesterday. The region stands together against Russian aggression!  Via

@RJukneviciene

Image

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The Jerusalem Post

@Jerusalem_Post

#Russia‘s Medvedev said that Western arms given to #Ukraine make a nuclear apocalypse more likely in the near future.

jpost.com ‘Nuclear apocalypse’ likely due to Western arms in Ukraine: Medvedev The United States has committed $37 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February last year.

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Jacaranda News

@JacaNews

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Russia sending nuclear arms to Belarus in Ukraine fight

https://rb.gy/5bltm

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KyivPost

@KyivPost

27th March 2023

Volodymyr #Zelensky has imposed sanctions on more than 200 Russian and Belarusian companies. The President also imposed sanctions against 51 Russian individuals, including scientists and plant CEOs.

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We need to listen to John Mearsheimer; it may be what we don’t want to acknowledge but this man has seen Vietnam, Afghanistan and many wars.

He trained in Westpoint.

I know I have given the link earlier but just in case you have time now and what the alternative view

142,789 views May 24, 2023

The Biden Administration is engulfed in a staggeringly expensive folly in Ukraine with no forseeable good outcomes. The Committee hosted University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer the week after the Russian invasion fourteen months ago. That zoom salon had 1,136,000 views. The Committee has invited John to return — this time in person. John will argue twin themes: First, we are in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West versus Russia – see the other as an existential threat. That makes a workable peace agreement beyond reach. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that is likely to have a variety of terrible consequences. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Second, Russia is going to win the war, although it is not going to decisively defeat Ukraine. It will end up, however, conquering a large swath of Ukrainian territory and making it part of Russia, while at the same time turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. The Committee would not be holding this salon over Ukraine if we had been faithful to constitutional processes. The systematic provision of $113 billion in military assistance to Ukraine in its war with Russia makes the United States a co-belligerent requiring a congressional declaration. But no co-belligerency declaration has been initiated by Congress nor sought by President Joe Biden. If Congress were required to vote, it would balk at co-belligerency as it balked in 2013 when President Barack Obama asked for a declaration of war against Syria and as it balked in 1999 when President Bill Clinton asked for a declaration of war against Serbia.

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States care about relative wealth, because economic might is the foundation of military might.

John Mearsheimer

Offensive realism predicts that the United States will send its army across the Atlantic when there is a potential hegemon in Europe that the local great powers cannot contain by themselves.

John Mearsheimer

The most dangerous states in the international system are continental powers with large armies.

John Mearsheimer

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Power is the pivot on which everything hinges. He who has the power is always right; the weaker is always wrong.

Niccolo Machiavelli

If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools.

Plato

The soul of man is divided into three parts, intelligence, reason, and passion. Intelligence and passion are possessed by other animals, but reason by man alone.

Pythagoras

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