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- Star Economist Acemoglu Discusses Trump: “It’s Likely To Be Much Worse Now Than Eight Years Ago”
U.S. economist Daron Acemoglu: “A recipe for chaos.” Foto:
Friedrich Bungert / SZ Photo / picture alliance
Star Economist Acemoglu Discusses Trump “It’s Likely To Be Much Worse Now Than Eight Years Ago”
The U.S. economist Daron Acemoglu accuses center-left parties of having betrayed the interests of their core supporters. And warns that if Trump wins the election this fall, the situation could become worse than even during his first term in office.
Interview Conducted by Michael Sauga
17.07.2024, 10.54 Uhr
DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Acemoglu, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump has caused worldwide consternation. What does it mean for American democracy?
Acemoglu: Nothing justifies violence, especially in democracies. Democracies gain their strength from being able to deal with differing opinions via peaceful means. It is a very sad moment for American democracy. It is a small consolation that Democratic leaders have condemned the attack in no uncertain terms.
DER SPIEGEL: How will voters react?
Acemoglu: U.S. citizens have reached an unprecedented nadir of trust in all sorts of public institutions. Assassination attempts against prominent politicians also tend to further erode trust in institutions and fuel yet more polarization. I very much hope that American institutions and political leaders will be able to work towards preventing such an outcome. It has also probably increased the chances that Donald Trump will be elected in November. About Daron Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu, born in 1967, teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and is a highly regarded economist internationally. He is best known for the book he wrote together with James A. Robinson called “Why Nations Fail,” which focuses on the historic origins of prosperity.
DER SPIEGEL: You have often described Trump as a danger to U.S. democracy. Do you still hold this view?
Acemoglu:Yes. But this in no way justifies any type of political violence. Threats to democracy are best met by a combination of voting, remaining checks and balances from democratic institutions, and peaceful protest. In any case, the assassination attempt has increased the threats against U.S. democracy.
DER SPIEGEL: Do you think Trump could really establish a dictatorship if he were returned to the White House?
Acemoglu: I am very concerned. He was already a threat to democracy in his first term. It is likely to be much worse now than it was eight years ago.
DER SPIEGEL: The U.S. is home to strong institutions like the judiciary, the media and the two bodies of Congress. Won’t they be enough to protect American democracy?
Donald Trump at a campaign appearance in New Hampshire: “Trump supporters have been radicalized.” Foto: Michael Reynolds / EPA
Acemoglu: No. I disagree. Congress has been taken over by polarization. The Republican Party has become Trump’s party. The courts are full of judges appointed by Trump. Civil society will resist Trump, but I think Trump supporters have been radicalized as well. So, that’s a recipe for chaos.
DER SPIEGEL: Should Biden run for re-election?
Acemoglu: He’s running. When the press runs front-page story after front-page story emphasizing that Biden is not fit to be president, they’re helping Trump. The true story is: Trump is a threat to democracy. Whoever is standing against him, you have to support him. Now, it’s time for unity
DER SPIEGEL: . Are you relieved that Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populist Rassemblement National only came third in the French elections?
Acemoglu: No. The danger has been averted for the immediate future. But it took an alliance between the left, the center and some of the center-right parties to stop Marine Le Pen. Plus, the alliance that came in first is dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, which is also quite extremist. If this trend continues, next time it will be even worse.
DER SPIEGEL: Was it a reckoning with the policies of President Emmanuel Macron?
Acemoglu: He did a number of reforms that have helped the French economy. But Macron is still seen by the French people as somehow catering to the wishes of global elites, bankers and large corporations. He hasn’t managed to develop a language to communicate with working-class people, an he has not really adopted many policies that were designed to help the working class. Now, it’s probably too late for Macron, and French voters are going to change their minds about him.
Marine Le Pen of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National: “If this trend continues, next time it will be even worse.” Foto: Le Pictorium / ZUMA Press / action press
DER SPIEGEL: In the European elections, 54 percent of French workers voted for Le Pen’s party. In Germany, too, workers tended to side with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Why have center-left parties lost the support of the social classes for which they once sought to make policy?
Acemoglu: The most important reason is that the center-left, from Bill Clinton to Tony Blair and Gerhard Schröder, ideologically shifted away from policies that were favoring labor. Instead, they went for liberalization and catered to multinational companies, especially on finance. For a while, that was tolerated by their voters, but especially after the financial crisis, it became quite unacceptable to workers, who saw it as a betrayal.
DER SPIEGEL: In the U.S., voters with college degrees tend to support the left, while the majority of workers are now in favor of Donald Trump. Is this the new party landscape for all of the West?
Acemoglu: Absolutely. Generally, an educated elite has taken over the center-left parties. They have shifted their policies and rhetoric away from what manual workers care about toward the kinds of things that more educated people are in favor of.
DER SPIEGEL: For example?
Acemoglu: The center-left parties still favor classical policies like higher taxes or subsidies. But they are against tariffs, job programs and immigration restrictions – policies, which are now favored by many workers. As the center left parties have become more identified with the educated elite, they have moved away from the exact preferences of the working class.
DER SPIEGEL: Clinton, Blair and Schröder wanted to strengthen the economy.
Acemoglu: Maybe, but this ignores a couple of things. First, people feel better when the political system delivers jobs rather than just subsidies or transfers. And second, the world is more complicated than the simple economic textbook model. Indeed, there are circumstances under which taxing and redistributing does not deliver as good results as directly intervening in the labor market, for instance through reasonable minimum wages or allowing workers to organize and engage in collective bargaining.
DER SPIEGEL: U.S. President Joe Biden came into office with the explicit promise of winning back the workers. Why hasn’t he succeeded?
Acemoglu: That’s a bit of a mystery, because Biden’s domestic agenda has been a huge success. He has passed landmark legislation. And he has been the most pro-worker president in recent U.S. history, supporting unions, higher minimum wages and worker protections, in addition to prioritizing job creation. But instead, people reproach him for his immigration policy.
DER SPIEGEL: Justifiably so?
Acemoglu: No. But Democrats before Biden had adopted a very permissive attitude to immigration, with some of them calling for open borders. And that was very much out of touch with what less educated manual workers wanted. Biden hasn’t done that, but he has rolled back some of the inhumane policies that Trump had brought in. Therefore, right-wing media have portrayed Biden as weak on immigration. Immigration is one of the issues that is costing Biden votes, even though I think he has actually tried to find a reasonable middle ground.
“No autocrat today can remain in power with just an iron fist and tanks.”
DER SPIEGEL: When many immigrants arrive, low-skilled workers who are already in the country fear that their wages may fall. Why have Democrats ignored such concerns?
Acemoglu: In the past, immigration has been a true engine of growth in the United States. Immigrants are entrepreneurial, they work hard, and they or their children contribute to the economy by becoming scientists, innovators, entrepreneurs or leading business managers. But even when the evidence suggests that they were a positive force, there was always a cultural backlash.
DER SPIEGEL: For the wealthy classes, immigration has frequently brought advantages.
Acemoglu: If you’re a well-off person working in the financial industry, what immigrants do for you is provide cheap services to your household, like house cleaning or gardening. Immigrants don’t live in your neighborhood. They rarely compete against you for houses, for jobs or for spots in elite educational programs. Whereas if you are a low-education American in New York already in difficult housing circumstances, they compete against you.
DER SPIEGEL: Has the left catered too much to minorities and immigrants, and paid too little attention to workers?
Acemoglu: In the U.S. and the UK, that’s absolutely right. When I go to meetings with center-left think tanks, very few people talk about working class issues. They are much more concerned about racial inequality, gender issues and discrimination. Don’t get me wrong: These are very important questions, especially for center-left parties. But turning that into the main issue of politics is dangerous because it’s an alienating topic for many low-income and low-education voters. Regulations on that have really hurt the left because they have generated a lot of backlash in the United States.
DER SPIEGEL: In the European elections, left-leaning parties found success when they took a hard line on immigration, as in Sweden and Denmark. Is this the way forward for European social democracy?
Acemoglu: The center-left has to articulate its own unique brand. What the center-left did in Denmark was adopt the policies of the center-right. That proved effective in Denmark, but I’m not advocating that. In a democracy, there is no obligation for politicians to adopt exactly the policies that the majority wants. But there is an obligation that they engage on all the issues that the population feels strongly about.
DER SPIEGEL: Another issue is climate protection. Many workers are concerned that their traditional industries will be squeezed out of the market by decarbonization. Does that explain some of the dissatisfaction?
Acemoglu: I am in favor of robust action against global warming. But that has to be combined with the right rhetoric and the right policy mix. In this respect, Biden did the right thing with his Inflation Reduction Act, which is the most comprehensive climate policy bill in the United States, perhaps anywhere in the industrialized world. He tried to bundle the climate transition together with green jobs. Those are the right types of things that the mainstream parties have to adopt in order to make climate policies palatable to the working class.
U.S. President Joe Biden: “He has been the most pro-worker president in recent U.S. history.” Foto: Samuel Corum / Sipa / ddp images
DER SPIEGEL: Newer autocracies, such as those in Hungary and Turkey, court the workers in a different way, posing as representatives of the common man against the interests of a remote global elite. Is that more than just a propaganda ploy?
Acemoglu: Hungary has seen a huge increase in corruption, but the country has adopted hardline policies on immigration and the economy hasn’t done too badly. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has, from the beginning, given voice to some of the poorer segments of Turkish society. He also created a lot of jobs in the early part of his tenure and created a huge amount of new housing, predominantly for low-income Turks. But on the other hand, inequality has increased and well-connected businesspeople have made big fortunes. Nevertheless, some segments of the Turkish population have stuck with Erdoğan, despite a lot of authoritarian backsliding.
DER SPIEGEL: How have the autocrats managed to get the workers on their side?
Acemoglu: No autocrat today can remain in power with just an iron fist and tanks, with the possible exception of North Korea. They need to have buy-in from the public. Erdoğan, for example, has systematically weakened institutions in Turkey: He completely controls the media, and he completely controls the judiciary. But he still needs to win elections. And in the most recent local elections, he lost. Autocrats need to be popular as well, and they are more unscrupulous when it comes to nationalist ideology and anti-immigrant rhetoric, like Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Trump in the U.S. On cultural issues, they can sometimes be more in sync with parts of the working class.
Supporters of Turkish President Erdoğan at a campaign event in late March 2024: “He still needs to win elections.” Foto:
Umit Bektas / REUTERS
DER SPIEGEL: You have predicted that democracies will die if they don’t make policies in the interests of employees. What advice do you have for the left-liberal camp to prevent this from happening?
Acemoğlu: I hope it’s not too late. The centrist parties must do much more for the workers. They need to stand up for higher wages, less inequality and more jobs. And they need to listen better to workers on a range of issues, including immigration and international trade. But what has particularly undermined democratic institutions in recent years has been the technocratic method of top-down rule.
DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Acemoglu, thank you very much for this interview.
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