Trump will enter office more experienced and better organized than in 2017. He will populate his administration with loyalists who better understand how the federal government works. He will have consolidated control of Congress and a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court majority.
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From this solid foundation, Trump will purge the federal bureaucracy of professional civil servants and replace them with political loyalists, particularly at the Justice Department and the FBI. The erosion of independent checks on executive power and an active undermining of the rule of law will leave more of US policy dependent on the decisions of one powerful man rather than on established and politically impartial legal principles.
Democracy itself will not be threatened. The US isn’t Hungary. But Trump’s indifference, and in some cases hostility, to longstanding American values will set dangerous new precedents for “political vandalism” by future presidents of both parties. Read Eurasia Group’s Top Risks of 2025 report here: https://www.eurasiagroup.net/toprisks
